Friday, 25 May 2012
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Heat put down Pacers behind Lebron and Wade, Game 7 preview for Boston-Philly
Miami advances: It's been looking like bad news for Indiana ever since the second half of Game 4, when Wade finally awoke and started to play like himself. Lebron has been fairly consistent all series, but Wade dropping a measly five points in Game 3 wasn't going to cut it. Miami needed both of them to play well in Game 6 to eliminate Indiana, and they did more than well--they played like freaks of nature. Jeff Van Gundy said it best: "What other team can have their second-best player go for over 40 points? Russell Westbrook at OKC? It's stupid." Yep.
To Indiana's credit, they came out with high energy and fought all game. They jumped out to a double digit lead, but Miami weathered the storm and eventually calmed the crowd down. When Miami was clearly pulling away behind Lebron's and Wade's brilliance, the Pacers fought to keep the game from getting out of hand. They should be proud. Wade and Lebron were just too good; few teams can beat them when they go off like that.
Just to focus on these two more, let's review their numbers from Games 4-6:
Lebron: 98 points, 35 rebounds, 24 assists, 6 steals, 3 blocks, 55% shooting
Wade: 99 points, 22 rebounds, 11 assists, 5 steals, 3 blocks, 61.5% shooting
That is all sorts of ridiculousness. It's not even just the raw numbers; it's how they achieved the numbers. They didn't necessarily take bad shots, but many of those shots they took were really tough and they made them look easy. I hope people appreciate how rare and absurd their performances have been. In Game 6, Wade was dropping these silly tear drops over the Indiana bigs, and when Lebron iced the game, he scored six straight points on some challenging shots, one of which should have been an and-1. I watched the game mostly shaking my head at the show they were putting on. At the end, I just knew Lebron was going to drive the final stake into Indiana's heart. I just sat there, thinking, "Well... he's going to score, and there's not much they can do about it." Utterly unfair.
I absolutely despise it when those Lebron haters trying to use Wade's 41 points to make Lebron look bad (which is curious, since he dropped 28-6-7). It shows an astonishing amount of willful stupidity. First of all, it's clear to anyone who knows a lick of basketball that Lebron is the better player. I don't know how to say that nicer. I don't like him that much personally, but I don't care how much you hate him and The Decision, you should be objective and admit his greatness or else you are just a complete moron. That in no way means Wade is somehow not as good as we think he is, because he is flat-out amazing. Just appreciate these players and what they are doing because they played at a level these past three games that few duos have ever reached.
None of this is to say that they won alone, either. I criticized the Miami role players for completely no-showing in a couple of games, but they've been playing a lot better recently. In Game 6, Miller hit four threes, including three big ones in the first half to keep Miami afloat, and Chalmers put in 15 points of his won. Joel Anthony played an excellent defensive game and Battier, while he didn't shoot well again, did an admirable job guarding David West. Especially since they were without Haslem, Miami needed someone to step up and they got two or three guys who did so. When Lebron and Wade are combining for 60-70 points (and shooting over 50% at that) and a couple of other guys are hitting open looks, it's probably not going to end well for the opponent.
However, I still worry about the sustainability of all this. They may be awesome, but they're human and they're going to start breaking down. Even Lebron, who is built like a tank, can't keep logging 45 minutes a game and play at this high a level. They still need Bosh back and Spoelstra is going to have try his hardest to steal minutes of rest for Lebron whenever he can. Even when they crushed Indiana in Game 5, Lebron still logged 38 minutes. That really shouldn't have happened. Wade is playing less minutes (another piece of evidence that Lebron is still the central player on that team), but he's also logging a lot of time himself. They're the best duo in the league, but they aren't robots and the role players will need to keep playing better to help them have a chance to win it all. At least Philly forced Game 7 so that they'll be more rested than Boston, but even though I expect them to beat the Celtics now (because Avery Bradley is out), they'll have their hands full with the Western champion even if they make it that far.
Philly at Boston for Game 7: Doug Collins has been pretty smart this series, and in Game 6, he clogged the lane to stop Rondo and let Boston take jump shots, which they largely failed at. It's a sensible strategy; not only does it make it hard on Boston to score since they struggle to get easy buckets unless Rondo creates them, long jumpshots increase the chances they have in the open court, where they clearly outmatch Boston. Unfortunately, it could invite a barrage of threes by the hobbled Ray Allen and big time shots from KG, but it's a good chance to take.
Rondo played poorly in Game 6; I think he rebounds in Game 7 and has a strong game, and I think Garnet continues his great play, at least for now (I worry about him as the playoffs progress). KG is playing insanely well for his age and I think he'll be huge in Game 7. However, Boston struggled to keep the Philly guards out of the paint in Game 6, especially Jrue Holiday, and they might continue to struggle as they can no longer hope that Avery Bradley returns. Ray Allen wasn't a great defender to begin with, and now he's old and injured. That's not a good combination against an athletic backcourt.
I think it'll be a lot like Game 5; the Sixers will keep it close for most of the game, but by the end of the third or the fourth quarter Boston will pull away. Miami would probably rather see the 76ers so that they won't have to mess with Rondo, KG, and Pierce (though Wade would eat Ray Allen alive), but I'm thinking Lebron will have at least one more battle with this version of the Boston Celtics.
Thursday, 24 May 2012
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Dirty plays and ugly games
Heat pummel Pacers, literally and figuratively: Well, this was a nice game. Instead of the story being how Lebron and Wade thoroughly dismantled Indiana after Danny Granger went down, all the talk centered around three hard fouls. Let's review them:
Hansbrough whacks Wade on the head: If you think he didn't do this on purpose, you are either blind or you just hate Dwyane Wade. It was a dirty foul. Not much else to say about it. Probably should have gotten him ejected.
Haslem two-hand smashes Hansbrough's face: Hansbrough was rewarded by Udonis Haslem as he went up for a jump shot, with Haslem making a half-hearted attempt to look like he's going for the ball but in reality just wanting to rearrange the ex-Tar Heel's face. This foul was worse than Hansbrough's and should have gotten Haslem ejected as well, but the refs, perhaps feeling like the Heat deserved some vengeance, let Haslem off with a Flagrant 1.
Dexter Pittman says "hi" to Lance Stephenson with an elbow: In garbage time, with the Pacers down by over 30 points, Lance Stephenson crashed the boards only to be met by Dexter Pittman's elbow. As us Longhorns know, Dexter is a big fella and getting hit by his elbow in the throat has got to hurt a ton. Yeouch. There is some irony here due to Stephenson mocking Lebron in Game 2 with a choking gesture, but there is no justification for it. It's actually quite surprising because Pittman never, ever showed any inclination to do such a thing at Texas; heck, he was more prone to frustrate us because he did not use his huge body to physically impose himself more. Yet there he was, purposefully going across the paint to "box out" Stephenson with a high elbow to the throat. Dangerous play.
Contrary to what old geezers might say about the "good ol' days" of NBA basketball, this does not constitute good balling. Back in the day, not only is it greatly exaggerated about the "toughness" of some of those slower and less athletic players, those dirty fouls were committed by chumps who couldn't hack it playing real basketball. Nowadays, it's even more dangerous since the players are bigger, stronger, and faster, than they were back in the 70's and 80's. This crap doesn't belong in the game. I have no problem with some smart, hard fouls (which is ironically the type of foul Artest committed against OKC, yet he still got a Flagrant because of his history), but stuff like the above detract from the game. Honestly, even though it's popular to hate the Heat, the Pacers are the ones who started this with David West's and Danny Granger's pathetic tough guy routines.
In any case, Haslem is out for Game 6, and Pittman got three games. Sounds about right (Pittman's suspension is pretty meaningless since he hardly plays anyway). So... let's talk about basketball.
There is no way around it; the Pacers got massacred. They failed to get good shots in the post through their bigs, and when Granger went down, they fell apart. Granger is no superstar by any stretch of the imagination, but he is still their best player, and losing him really screwed them. He will play Game 6 but he will be hobbled, which is not a good sign. Then again, I can't feel sorry for Indiana because if Chris Bosh was playing, it wouldn't matter if West (slightly sprained knee) or Granger (sprained ankle) were at full strength; this series would probably already be over.
I was not one of those people who pronounced the death of Miami after the Heat looked terrible in Game 3; I figured they would still win the series, and even without Haslem, I expect them to close it out today in Indiana. I'm still skeptical about them overall if Bosh can't come back, although Wade and Lebron have been extraordinary the past two games. By the way, if D-Wade is "Batman," as Skip Bayless likes to say, then Lebron isn't Robin... he's a far more powerful hero like Superman or the Martian Manhunter. Hate Lebron all you want, but if you pretend he's not the best player in the world, you're not just a hater, you're a basketball idiot.
Philly forces Game 7: Rondo played badly and the Celtics fell. This is actually not that surprising for Boston; when they won the title in 2008, they got taken to seven games twice in the playoffs, including in the first round. I expect Boston to win at home, but Game 7's are unpredictable, as I said in my last post. It's dangerous to assume that homecourt will get you that win, especially against a team that is as scrappy and opportunistic as the Sixers. Rondo has to play well because he is the engineer that gets them easy shots, otherwise it's going to be long jumpers from the aging Big Three while the younger and more athletic 76ers attempt to slash the lane.
The difference in the quality of play between the West and East has been stark. While the games have still been entertaining in the East, they are far uglier and far less polished. I'm not saying the Western Champion is guaranteed to win the Finals because Miami or Boston can put up a great fight (if Philly or Indiana somehow make it... then you can guarantee a Western winner), but it's still clear that the Western Conference is, from top to bottom, the better conference, and it has been that way since Jordan retired.
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
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Lots of basketball
Spurs sweep Clippers: Here is my analysis: The Spurs are a lot better than the Clippers. There. Okay, granted, Paul and Griffin were not totally healthy, but even if they were, they were not going to beat San Antonio. They fought hard in Games 3 and 4 and had a real chance of taking those games, but too much rides on Chris Paul to create something while the Spurs have so many options and get far better shots. Don't blame Paul too much for his late game struggles; he had nowhere to go and few options to look for.
The Clippers have some talent but there are so many holes in their overall game. They don't have knockdown shooters to scare people to space the floor all the time. Blake Griffin is a tremendous athlete yet lacks the offensive skill required to put pressure on a defense and demand double teams. Because he can't threaten consistently outside of six feet, Tim Duncan could roam and guard the paint with ease. DeAndre Jordan is another great athlete who is scared to take a shot beyond the paint (seriously, how do you make only two shots outside of the paint YOUR ENTIRE CAREER?). Both he and Reggie Evans got the Greg Popovich treatment and got put on the line on purpose because they are horrid at free throw shooting. Seriously, you don't even have to shoot that well from the line to make your estimated points per possession high enough so that this strategy isn't viable anymore, so I don't feel the least bit sorry for Jordan or Evans.
The Clippers, for all their fanfare, were simply not that good. They shouldn't have beaten Memphis, but the Grizzlies choked and Chris Paul went off on them. San Antonio is too good for Chris Paul to do the same thing, so the Clippers get to go home after four.
Lakers fall to OKC: It's been a while since I've talked about this series so I'll go through the remaining three games:
Game 3: OKC had a great chance to go up 3-0, but the Lakers were absurd from the line (41-42!) and took the game. I think Durant made a mistake passing a good shot up in crunch time to give it to Ibaka, who came up short. That's a shot that I think KD needs to take. The Lakers enjoyed a massive free throw advantage which drew criticisms of biased officiating. While there were definitely ticky-tack fouls called, it went both ways; two of Harden's fouls on Kobe were bogus, but Kobe got called for a bad foul on Harden as well. The Lakers were aggressive and unconscious from the line, so they got the win.
Game 4: I thought the back-to-back would be rough on the Lakers, and I think it was. They came out strong and led the entire way, but OKC wore them down in the last quarter. Westbrook was excellent in keeping the Thunder in the game, and then Durant hit the dagger three in Artest's face. That was a sick, cold-blooded shot. Durant is quickly becoming one of the most feared clutch shooters in the league. This game ended whatever hopes LA had; the Lakers could hope to extend the series to six or seven, but they were not going to beat the Thunder three times in a row.
Gasol received considerable blame for passing up the potential game-winning shot when Kobe got him the ball out of a double team. He deserved it; not only did he pass up a shot, he threw a terrible cross court pass that got intercepted. Yikes. Not one of his better moments.
Game 5: I thought it would be a close finish because it was tight for much of the game, but the Lakers simply ran out of gas while the Thunder ran right by them. I'll say this about Kobe: He came to play. He was running and jumping like it was 2008, performing highlight reel dunks that we haven't seen from him in a while, and he was trying to will his team to victory. Unfortunately for him, Bynum turned in a horrific game and Gasol once again disappeared down the stretch after having a strong first half. I like Gasol a lot; he's a very skilled and unselfish big man, but he has long stretches where he is frustratingly un-aggressive. As far as Bynum, it is utterly inexcusable for him to finish with only four rebounds. That's just awful. The Thunder killed the Lakers on the boards, which should be an advantage for LA, and a large part of that was because Andrew Bynum was being lazy, didn't box out, and didn't hustle for rebounds. He's the second-best center in the league but he's far from being a dominant force. Four rebounds... really? Just wow.
I've criticized Kobe quite a bit for taking too many shots this year and not working inside out more with Gasol and Bynum. While that still remains true (and that criticism hits Mike Brown as well), he should only get praise this game. Kobe did everything he could in Game 5, but the Thunder just had too many weapons and he got too little help.
Westbrook once again gave them fits and he destroyed Sessions, while both Durant and Harden also turned in good games. That's just too many points for the Lakers to make up for, especially since they have almost no depth. OKC is younger, faster, and deeper. And probably better coached.
By the way, that flagrant foul call on Ron Artest was terrible, and it led to two technical fouls on both Artest and Kobe because they were complaining about that terrible flagrant call. I know Artest doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt, but that doesn't justify bad calls. It didn't decide the game, but the Lakers could ill-afford to give the Thunder so many free points.
So where do the Lakers go from here? Sessions is a clear upgrade over Derek Fisher, but honestly, they still might have been better off with Lamar Odom and Fisher on the team, provided Odom didn't have the same mental meltdown in LA as he did in Dallas. Sessions is young and not bad, but he cannot compete with the elite point guards in the league at all. The Lakers still have sorry depth, and while Gasol and Bynum give them an edge against most teams in terms of size, they both have bizarre spells of uselessness and struggle with consistency.
Kobe is going to turn 34 in August and he'll be coming off the Olympics. Bynum is young but a headcase, and Gasol is losing the trust of the fanbase. This current version of the Lakers is good enough to be competitive but not good enough to win the title. It seems something needs to happen, and that probably means packaging some assets to make a run at a player who can completely change their fortunes (hello, Dwight Howard). Unless, of course, they hire Stan Van Gundy, in which case it'd be a very bad idea to try to get Dwight.
Miami evens series against Indiana: It is popular to hate on Lebron James, and while he is far from perfect, he is the best player on the planet and one of the best we've ever seen. He turned this absurd stat line to keep Miami afloat: 40 points, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, with over 50% shooting. There aren't many players in history who could do that, frankly, and refusing to see that doesn't make you enlightened; quite the opposite, actually. I wish Lebron would take over games more often, but man, he is one heck of a talent.
Wade turned in a sick game of his own (30-9-6), and their combined 70 points were enough to power the Heat to an important win. Those guys were sick. However, while I still believe they'll beat the Pacers, this simply cannot continue. James is the best player in the world and Wade is in the Top 5, but they are still human; they can and will wear out with the burden that is placed on them now. They got some welcome help from Haslem while Chalmers was okay, but Battier continues to shoot like garbage and Miller is still a nonfactor. They absolutely need Chris Bosh to win the title this year. Even if they make it out of the East, I just can't see them beating the Thunder or Spurs without him, short of Lebron James turning into Superman and destroying everyone. While that is within his abilities, that is hardly a fair or reasonable thing to expect.
Unfortunately for Lebron, even if he plays great basketball, they're likely not going to win the championship this year unless Bosh comes back strong. Silly fans and analysts will still kill him over that.
Boston flubs Game 4, comes back strong in Game 5: The C's surprisingly blew a 15 point halftime lead to the Sixers to allow them to even the series. Boston started to commit silly turnovers that allowed Philly to get out and out-run the slower Celtics, and Iguodala hit some huge shots to lift Philadelphia. Huge game, and a costly one for Boston.
Game 5 was fairly competitive until the fourth quarter. The Celtics went on a huge run and buried the 76ers and now are one game out of the ECF. It'll be important for them to try to end this in six; not only are Game 7's unpredictable, they really need the rest.
The Celtics look like the favorite of the East now with Bosh out, but they are not without their problems as well. Ray Allen continues to struggle, and I'm not sure if they can assume that Garnet will continue to play this well as the playoffs progress. Also, Brandon Bass isn't getting them 27 again. Ain't happening. I don't like their chances either against either the Spurs or the Thunder.
Thunder-Spurs conference finals: I'm definitely looking forward to this one. So is Charles Barkley, who hilariously poked fun at the city of San Antonio for its Riverwalk and Alamo. He then made it worse by saying, "I'm just joking, San Antonio. But I'm not going to lie; there are some big ol' women there." Lol. Sir Charles doesn't always give the best analysis, but at least he is funny.
While I want Durant to win, I'm worried about how they will fare against the Spurs. The Thunder led the league in turnovers during the season, but in the playoffs they've been very good at taking care of the ball. At the same time, they'll see a very smart and veteran defense in the Spurs who will be more disruptive in the passing lanes. The Spurs do not have individual defenders who can handle the Thunder's Big Three by themselves, but they play good team defense and Duncan can still protect the rim well. Also, on the other end, guys like Splitter and especially Bonner can take the Thunder bigs farther away from the basket than they are comfortable. Because of that, OKC may opt to go small to run the three point shooters off the arc, but then that means that Duncan will get largely single coverage and they'll have less bodies on the boards and protecting the rim.
The Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook matchup should be great fun to watch. Westbrook is bigger, stronger, and more athletic. Parker is savvier, takes care of the ball better, and has a better command of his entire team (and he's still plenty quick himself). Also, we get the battle of the two lefty sixth men, Ginobili and Harden, two players who are good enough to be All-Star starters but choose to come off the bench to help their team. Ginobili is the more unique player because of his interesting style and knack for funky plays, and Harden plays more like a big point guard sometimes. I think the big factor this series will be none other than Kevin Durant. The Spurs are a deeper team so they will have more scoring options; it will be up to Durant to light up the scoreboard and keep the Thunder at the same pace. He has no counterpart this series so he must dominate.
My head tells me to pick the Spurs, especially since they have home court advantage. But I'm going to stick with OKC. Durant averages 30+ per game in a very competitive, six game series.
Friday, 18 May 2012
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Lakers choke, Heat miss Bosh
Lakers flub away Game 2: Oh boy. The Lakers did what they needed to do for most of the game: Play physical, slow down the pace, and play aggressive help defense. Particularly in the second half, they frustrated the high flying Thunder and forced several turnovers and long jumpers, resulting in a very low-scoring contest even though the halftime score was 48-45. Because they controlled the pace of the game and OKC's jumpers weren't falling, the Lakers enjoyed a commanding seven point lead with two minutes left to play.
Then came chaos. Kobe had two bad turnovers (second one was probably not a good pass by Blake but Kobe still should have caught it), James Harden had two lay-ups despite doing nothing all game, and the other Laker possessions ended very poorly, one with a crappy shot by Artest and another with a bad shot by Kobe. Durant put the Thunder up by one with a beautiful runner over Gasol, and all of a sudden the Lakers were looking at a 2-0 hole.
That last Laker possession was the epitome of bad basketball, and both Kobe and Mike Brown deserve considerable blame. With 18.6 seconds left, the Lakers opted to try to iso Kobe and let him wait out large chunks of the clock. This was stupid for two reasons: One, the Lakers were down one, so you do not want to wait for the last shot. You want to give yourself a chance to either get an offensive rebound if you miss or foul quickly, forcing the opponent to make their free throws. Two, the Thunder had a foul to give. Thus, Sefalosha wisely fouled Kobe when Kobe finally made his move with less than ten seconds left, forcing the Lakers to inbound the ball with 5.7 seconds remaining. The Lakers still ended up luckily getting a quality look at the bucket from Steve Blake, but that was all still astonishingly bad basketball.
Amazingly enough, Kobe had the audacity to throw a fit over Blake's shot. Contrary to what Mike Brown said, Kobe was NOT going to be open on that flair out because Ibaka saw it and was swinging over to help. Artest made the right play and caught Westbrook sleeping, finding Blake for a wide-open three. He missed it, but you can't ask for a better look. If you really want Kobe to have the ball, draw up a better play or something, because that was two plays in a row that the Thunder denied Kobe the ball (the first causing a timeout by LA).
So much fail by LA, and I think that just cost them the series. I picked OKC to win this series anyway, but the Lakers do have the means to win if they play each game like they did in Game 2 (minus the final two minutes, obviously). However, I think they absolutely had to have Game 2. That's kind of a screw-up that turns what should be a competitive six or seven game series into a sweep. With Games 3 and 4 back to back, the Lakers are in trouble.
Boston thrashes 76ers: Not much to say here. Disappointing effort by Philly, Rondo was great again, and Kevin Garnett continues to play like it's 2004.
Heat let Game 2 slip away and get whipped in Game 3: Chris Bosh has deservedly received a lot of criticism for some of his play in the past, and it is clear to anyone that he is not on the same level as Wade and Lebron. However, as I stated in my last post, that's not the same thing as saying that he is useless because he is an extremely valuable player. Not only are his 18 points and nine rebounds a game obviously important, his presence as a potential scoring threat opens things up for the grossly under-performing supporting cast of Miami. Furthermore, his absence greatly screws up their rotations, forcing Lebron to play heavy minutes at power forward which only serves to tax him more. Make no mistake, losing Chris Bosh is gigantic, and while Wade and Lebron are still good enough to power the Heat to the Finals, it's going to make it that much tougher on them.
We need only look at Games 2 and 3 of this series to see Bosh's impact. In Game 2, in a low-scoring affair, the Heat barely lost because Wade missed a lay up and Lebron missed three freebies in the fourth. With Bosh, you think the Heat are losing by that slim margin? Of course, that victory gave the young Pacers a world of confidence, and Miami's lack of interior presence and horribly shooting role players allowed them to get ripped up in Game 3. Wade also had a terrible game and Lebron slowed down in the second half. I still think Miami is going to win this series, but instead of taking down Indiana in four or five games, they're going to have waste energy in a six or seven game series.
Here is the problem right now with Miami now that they are missing ~20 points a game from Bosh: Their supporting cast is absolutely sucking. Chalmers had a good game today, but other than him, the other players haven't done squat. I like Shane Battier a lot, but if he's going to try to fulfill that Bruce Bowen role as a defensive specialist, he HAS to hit those open corner threes. Going zero for six is completely unacceptable. Otherwise he can't space the floor and the defense can clog the lane to stop Lebron and Wade. It is utterly embarrassing for the Heat players that they can't hit wide-open three pointers. It's killing them. At this rate, Lebron and Wade have to combine for 75-80 points per game to compensate for the pathetic uselessness of their teammates. Even if they get by Indiana, they WILL lose to Boston if they can't hit wide open shots. And even if Wade and Lebron somehow get them by Boston, you think they're beating the red-hot San Antonio Spurs or the uber-athletic Thunder with role players who can't step up and hit open looks? It's looking bleak in Miami right now with the loss of Bosh. They need to find a way to win this series without him and pray hard he returns for the ECF.
San Antonio easily dispatches the Clippers again: Nothing unexpected. The Spurs have beautiful ball movement, strong team defense, and individual playmakers. Not only that, Tim Duncan is playing as well as he has in the past two or three years. Even if the Clippers were completely healthy, they'd be overmatched. With Paul and Blake Griffin slowed by injury, their chances are close to zero. I said it before: Memphis would have been a far tougher matchup for the Spurs. Since Memphis brain-farted in Game 1 and then lost the series in Game 7 at home, the Spurs get to roll over the Clippers. I'd be surprised if this series goes beyond five games.
The favorite now is...: San Antonio. I picked the Heat to win it all before the playoffs started, but the loss of Chris Bosh put a damper on that. Even if he comes back, it is questionable if he'll be at full strength. Also, the Spurs are simply playing the best basketball. They legitimately go nine deep, they have smart players, they have two big men who can play well, and they have crafty playmakers in Ginobili and Parker out in the perimeter. They are deepest team in these playoffs and they have the smartest coach. Championship #5 is looking pretty close right now.
The funny thing is that while it is likely the Lakers will fall flat against the Thunder, you can make a decent case that the Lakers might pose a bigger problem than the Thunder for San Antonio. Tony Parker might destroy LA, but the aging Duncan would be challenged considerably by the Lakers' size. The Thunder cannot threaten the Spurs down low like LA can. That said, Westbrook obviously matches up much better with Parker and Durant can cause all sorts of havoc. Either series would be fun, but as of now, it's hard not to favor the Spurs in both possibilities.
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
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NFL Draft, NBA
NFL: I realized that I did not write about the draft... and for good reason, since I didn't follow it at all this year. There is not much to say; three Longhorns were drafted in the later rounds (Acho, Robinson, and Randall), and Luck and RG3 predictably went #1 and #2.
One thing I will comment on is the absurd fact that Ryan Tannehill was picked #8 in this draft by the Miami Dolphins. I mean, this was so stupid that I'm not sure what to say. I'm not saying this because he is an Aggie; I'm saying this because the risk is not worth it at #8. In college, he led several second half meltdowns with costly interceptions, he showed a lot of struggle going through his progressions to his third and fourth options, and his accuracy plummets like a rock when he gets on the move, which is a bit disappointing because he is actually athletic and mobile. He put up huge numbers in some games, but when he played good defenses he typically got his rear end handed to him. He was directly responsible for their loss to us in College Station, even though I'll give him credit for toughing out that final drive to briefly take the lead.
I understand that Tannehill still has a lot of untapped potential. He has ideal size for a quarterback and he has decent arm strength, and he is pretty athletic, being a former receiver. Also, because he started as a receiver, and a pretty decent one at that, he was robbed of some developmental years. He is still learning the position and he has a good chance of becoming a lot better. I get all of that. But you do not spend the #8 freaking pick in the draft and all that money on someone who could not even get it together in college. As I've stated many times before, future results do NOT necessarily change the analysis at the time. Even if Tannehill sets the world on fire, we should still look back on this as a silly pick because the reasoning is just not there. In that case, we would not call it a smart pick but simply credit Miami for developing him well and Tannehill for learning quickly.
I think they just picked him because they were desperate for a QB and they had no shot at getting Luck or Griffin. That is, of course, a horrible reason to just take a blind reach.
Clippers take down Memphis: I was honestly a bit surprised. I thought the Clippers lost their chance to win the series when they lost at home in Game 6, but they were able to grind out a win on the road in a pretty ugly contest. It's just too bad for the Grizzlies; they have the pieces to make some noise, and due to an inexcusable meltdown in Game 1, they're going home in seven rather than winning in six. Props to the Clips, but I'd be very surprised if they beat San Antonio.
Lakers squeak by Denver, only to get pummeled by the Thunder: If you're older like the Lakers and you have a team down 3-1 with Game 5 at your place... you need to win that game and get some rest. Instead, the Lakeshow played lazy and fell short in a furious comeback, got whipped in Game 6 because Pau Gasol no-showed, and then eeked out a victory in Game 7 in a game that was closer than the final margin. They were rewarded by facing the young, rested, and hungry OKC Thunder in the second round, and they were utterly outclassed last night. Everyone knew that Westbrook would be a nightmarish matchup for them, and it showed; he abused both Sessions and Steve Blake en route to a near triple double in only three quarters of work. Durant also had a strong game and Sefalosa hounded Kobe all night.
Bynum played decently but Gasol did not, and they both have to dominate for the Lakers to have a shot in this series because OKC's perimeter is too fast and athletic for the Lakers. The problem is that OKC, while missing a post scoring threat, have bodies to defend bigs: Perkins (though banged up), Ibaka, and Nick Collison. The Lakers quite literally have nobody to check Westbrook and they can barely handle Durant and Harden. The Lakers need a huge series from their bigs in all phases of the game and they need OKC to get cold. That's their only hope because Kobe is no longer capable of rescuing them from a team this good. If they don't shore up their help defense and really dominate the paint, they're going to find themselves being sent home in a similar fashion as Dallas did last year.
76ers even series with Boston: I think, because of the unfortunate injuries that Chicago suffered, I was not giving Philadelphia enough credit. They're really not a bad team, and I've always like Iguodala (though I've always felt he'd be way better as a second or third option and defensive specialist on a better team). They barely lost Game 1 and took Game 2, getting the split they needed to really put onus on Boston. I still think the Celtics win this one; Garnett has been playing fairly well throughout the playoffs and Rondo is still great, but it may be tougher than many would have thought.
Bosh out indefinitely: In a huge blow to Miami, Chris Bosh is out indefinitely with some sort of abdominal strain. I'd honestly be very surprised if he was out the rest of the playoffs, but I have no idea what exactly the injury is, though MRI results didn't reveal anything serious. If he is out for the rest of the year, Miami is in trouble. It is no secret that Bosh is far less of a player than Wade and Lebron, and it is also no secret that a more defensively minded and tougher big guy like Ibaka or Chandler would probably fit those two better. Nonetheless, Bosh is still an excellent player who can score inside and outside and is pretty athletic for his size. He's not Lebron or Wade but he's an All-Star level player, and you never want to lose such guys.
If he's a no go, Miami still has a chance, but even if they get out of the East, it'd be a heck of an effort to beat the Thunder or the Spurs without him. Even Indiana may become more of a headache, although they should still beat them this series.
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